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2025-03-12

Model Predictions

Model Fresno State Bulldogs Nevada Wolf Pack Spread Result
Elo 11.2% 88.8% - โœ“
Bradley-Terry 14.7% 85.3% - โœ“
Margin 4.5% 95.5% +16.8 โœ“ (1.8 off)
Pythagorean 18.2% 81.8% - โœ“
Efficiency 18.2% 81.8% - โœ“
Adjusted Efficiency 2.8% 97.2% - โœ“
Log Adjusted 2.7% 97.3% - โœ“
Points Off/Def 16.9% 83.1% - โœ“

Actual: Nevada Wolf Pack +15 (86-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Fresno State Bulldogs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Zaon Collins 40 4-10 0-2 7-10 2 8 1 0 3 15 13 -9.6
Alex Crawford 39 4-8 1-3 0-1 5 1 1 0 3 9 5 -6.7
Brian Amuneke 37 6-13 3-7 1-2 5 1 2 0 2 16 9 -7.7
Elijah Price 36 3-8 0-0 11-16 11 2 0 1 3 17 20 -12.0
Jasir Tremble 23 5-14 4-8 0-0 2 0 1 0 0 14 3 -0.2
Pierre Geneste Jr. 16 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 1 1 0 0 4 +1.7
Mor Seck 9 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -13.0

Nevada Wolf Pack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Kobe Sanders 38 5-13 0-5 7-7 7 10 1 0 1 17 21 +10.0
Tyler Rolison 35 6-12 1-4 2-3 3 3 1 2 2 15 10 +9.6
Xavier DuSell 34 3-8 2-7 0-0 4 1 1 0 1 8 5 +14.2
Nick Davidson 33 5-12 0-2 1-2 11 2 0 4 2 11 14 +13.2
Brandon Love 17 3-5 0-0 2-2 2 0 1 1 2 8 5 +8.7
Justin McBride 14 4-6 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 0 0 8 6 +5.1
Chuck Bailey III 14 4-6 3-4 1-2 2 0 0 0 2 12 6 +0.2
K.J. Hymes 8 2-3 0-0 1-3 4 3 0 2 0 5 11 +4.6
Jeriah Coleman 6 0-0 0-0 2-2 2 0 0 1 0 2 5 -5.9
Jordan Malmlov 1 0-2 0-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -6.2

* = starter