Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.8% | 93.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 13.8% | 86.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.0% | 83.0% | +8.7 | ✓ (7.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +16 (70-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez White | 33 | 1-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2 | -19.7 |
| Zaxton King | 32 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -10.9 |
| Michael Osei-Bonsu | 26 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -16.6 |
| Wesley Oba | 26 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -1.9 |
| Vincent Brady II | 25 | 3-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | -15.7 |
| Chase Martin | 21 | 2-12 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -2 | -8.1 |
| Logan Epes | 16 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1.8 |
| Mozae Downing-Rivers | 15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -8.9 |
| Makhai Valentine | 6 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | +0.8 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger | 33 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +15.8 |
| Dalton Banks | 28 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | +19.6 |
| Chase Walker | 24 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | +8.7 |
| Jordan Davis | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +9.9 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 21 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +0.6 |
| Ty Pence | 20 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +25.1 |
| Landon Wolf | 17 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | +6.7 |
| Jack Daugherty | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.4 |
| Cameron Barnes | 13 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | +5.9 |
| Cade Norris | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.8 |
| Caden Boser | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1.1 |
| Ty Blake | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.9 |
* = starter