Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.1% | 43.9% | -1.3 | ✓ (8.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies -10 (76-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarred Hyder | 37 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 8 | -1.2 |
| Peter Bandelj | 36 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | -2.6 |
| Owen Koonce | 33 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 17 | -0.4 |
| Isaac Jessup | 31 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 14 | +4.9 |
| Mac Riniker | 29 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +4.8 |
| Cayden Ward | 17 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -7.2 |
| Luka Tarlac | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -10.0 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 8 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 35 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 11 | -2.3 |
| Connor Sevilla | 35 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Leo DeBruhl | 30 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +4.3 |
| Pablo Tamba | 26 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 14 | +6.1 |
| Sione Lose | 23 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | -2.5 |
| Nils Cooper | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1.6 |
| Niko Rocak | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | +10.0 |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1.3 |
* = starter