Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.5% | 94.5% | +15.6 | ✓ (12.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.6% | 97.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.5% | 97.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +3 (74-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis | 38 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | +2.6 |
| D. Powell | 36 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +9.6 |
| V. Lubin | 34 | 8-11 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 | - |
| S. Trimble | 30 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 6-9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | +3.6 |
| E. Cadeau | 27 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 17 | +19.9 |
| J. Withers | 20 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | -3.9 |
| I. Jackson | 10 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -7.5 |
| J. Washington | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2.8 |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Knueppel | 38 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 9 | -3.3 |
| T. Proctor | 34 | 4-11 | 0-5 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | -3.6 |
| S. James | 31 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | -7.6 |
| I. Evans | 26 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -4.0 |
| K. Maluach | 23 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 14 | +16.6 |
| P. Ngongba II | 17 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | -16.9 |
| C. Foster | 16 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +8.8 |
| M. Gillis | 15 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +8.7 |
* = starter