Model Predictions
| Model | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.1% | 55.9% | +1.3 | ✗ (4.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -3 (83-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Gray | 36 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 20 | - |
| A'ja Wilson | 34 | 8-16 | 0-0 | 14-15 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 31 | - |
| Jackie Young | 33 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Jewell Loyd | 29 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | - |
| NaLyssa Smith | 26 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Kierstan Bell | 14 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Dana Evans | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| A. Nye | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Kiah Stokes | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thomas | 34 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 20 | - |
| M. Akoa Makani | 32 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Satou Sabally | 30 | 10-16 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 20 | - |
| Kahleah Copper | 30 | 6-15 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 5 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 24 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Sami Whitcomb | 18 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 10 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter