Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.6% | 47.4% | -0.6 | ✓ (7.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.6% | 31.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -8 (66-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gray | 37 | 6-12 | 1-6 | 4-7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 15 | - |
| N. Hillmon | 36 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 21 | - |
| M. Caldwell | 27 | 2-8 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| B. Jones | 26 | 6-12 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 22 | - |
| J. Canada | 25 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | - |
| R. Howard | 16 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| T. Paopao | 15 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | - |
| B. Griner | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| N. Coffey | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thomas | 34 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 19 | - |
| K. Copper | 32 | 3-14 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | - |
| S. Sabally | 29 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| D. Bonner | 26 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 12 | - |
| N. Mack | 22 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| M. Akoa Makani | 21 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| S. Whitcomb | 20 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 16 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
* = starter