Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Fever | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.2% | 58.8% | +2.0 | ✓ (33.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +35 (95-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana Fever
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell | 35 | 4-17 | 1-6 | 3-6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | -3 | - |
| Lexie Hull | 27 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Aliyah Boston | 26 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Sophie Cunningham | 26 | 6-9 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Aari McDonald | 24 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Natasha Howard | 18 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Damiris Dantas | 13 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| B. Turner | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| M. Timpson | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| C. Bibby | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Sydney Colson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thomas | 30 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 28 | - |
| Kahleah Copper | 27 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | - |
| DeWanna Bonner | 24 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 7-7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 15 | - |
| Sami Whitcomb | 23 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 23 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| M. Akoa Makani | 23 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Satou Sabally | 21 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 13 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 20 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| L. Held | 3 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| K. Brown | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| K. Laksa | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
* = starter