Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Atlanta Dream | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.2% | 73.8% | +5.7 | ✓ (17.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.4% | 74.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Dream +23 (95-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Copper | 26 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 11 | - |
| A. Thomas | 26 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| M. Akoa Makani | 25 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | - |
| D. Bonner | 22 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| S. Whitcomb | 20 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| L. Held | 18 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| N. Mack | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - |
| K. Laksa | 14 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Sabally | 12 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | - |
| K. Brown | 9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hillmon | 34 | 7-12 | 1-6 | 3-3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - |
| M. Caldwell | 31 | 5-12 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - |
| A. Gray | 28 | 8-12 | 7-9 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 18 | - |
| J. Canada | 26 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | - |
| B. Jones | 23 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 19 | - |
| N. Coffey | 22 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| T. Paopao | 19 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| S. Walker-Kimbrough | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| T. Thierry | 6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| K. Smalls | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter