Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.6% | 47.4% | -0.6 | ✓ (10.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.6% | 31.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -11 (79-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gray | 37 | 10-16 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 24 | - |
| J. Canada | 36 | 5-14 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | - |
| N. Hillmon | 26 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| B. Griner | 26 | 8-12 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | - |
| B. Jones | 24 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - |
| S. Walker-Kimbrough | 22 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| M. Caldwell | 21 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | - |
| N. Coffey | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| T. Paopao | 4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thomas | 34 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 15 | - |
| S. Whitcomb | 28 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | - |
| D. Bonner | 25 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 11 | - |
| K. Copper | 22 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -1 | - |
| S. Sabally | 21 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | - |
| N. Mack | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 18 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| K. Laksa | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| L. Held | 12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| K. Brown | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
* = starter