Model Predictions
| Model | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.4% | 58.6% | +1.9 | ✗ (4.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -3 (81-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 35 | 8-20 | 0-1 | 10-11 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 30 | - |
| Chelsea Gray | 35 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Jackie Young | 35 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Jewell Loyd | 30 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Tiffany Mitchell | 21 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| A. Nye | 20 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Dana Evans | 11 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kiah Stokes | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Joyner Holmes | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thomas | 33 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Kahleah Copper | 30 | 5-12 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Satou Sabally | 29 | 3-14 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Sami Whitcomb | 28 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | - |
| K. Laksa | 20 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 18 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| K. Brown | 15 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| M. Akoa Makani | 14 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Natasha Mack | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - |
* = starter