Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Minnesota Lynx | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.4% | 78.6% | +7.1 | ✓ (15.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.5% | 66.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Lynx +23 (88-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Held | 29 | 7-14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | - |
| K. Laksa | 25 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Sami Whitcomb | 23 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Satou Sabally | 22 | 6-16 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 7 | - |
| K. Westbeld | 21 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| K. Brown | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| M. Musa | 18 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Haley Jones | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| M. Akoa Makani | 13 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| M. McConnell | 13 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napheesa Collier | 31 | 8-13 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 18 | - |
| A. Smith | 25 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Kayla McBride | 25 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Natisha Hiedeman | 24 | 7-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Bridget Carleton | 23 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | - |
| C. Williams | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Jessica Shepard | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| K. Samuelson | 15 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Diamond Miller | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Alissa Pili | 8 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| A. Kosu | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter