Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 65.4% | 34.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.9% | 40.1% | -2.2 | ✓ (0.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.4% | 45.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -3 (91-94). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Holloman * | 36 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 20 | +8.1 |
| Jaden Akins * | 35 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 4 | +15.7 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. * | 32 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 9-11 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 17 | -6.6 |
| Jaxon Kohler * | 13 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Szymon Zapala * | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Coen Carr | 32 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 15 | +6.8 |
| Frankie Fidler | 27 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | +20.6 |
| Xavier Booker | 24 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1.0 |
| Carson Cooper | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | +3.9 |
| Kur Teng | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble * | 37 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | -7.2 |
| RJ Davis * | 37 | 6-18 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 10 | -8.4 |
| Elliot Cadeau * | 34 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 13 | -2.7 |
| Jae'Lyn Withers * | 33 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Jalen Washington * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Drake Powell | 33 | 7-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | -5.0 |
| Ian Jackson | 21 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | -6.3 |
| V. Lubin | 12 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Ty Claude | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.9 |
| Cade Tyson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter