Model Predictions
| Model | UT Arlington Mavericks | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 32.1% | 67.9% | +4.1 | ✗ (12.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.5% | 61.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats -8 (72-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UT Arlington Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Robinson | 34 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | +9.2 |
| Lance Ware | 31 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 20 | +10.1 |
| Diante Smith | 29 | 9-11 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 15 | +16.1 |
| Darius Burford | 27 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | +5.6 |
| Brandyn Talbot | 21 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Jaden Wells | 18 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +3.2 |
| Raysean Seamster | 17 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | -2.5 |
| Kade Douglas | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.3 |
| Troy Hupstead | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | +1.2 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +0.8 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Gumbs | 34 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -9.4 |
| Tyrel Morgan | 31 | 9-15 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 20 | -4.9 |
| Joshua O'Garro | 27 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -9.3 |
| Dylan Dawson | 24 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Coleton Benson | 22 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Tylan Pope | 21 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +0.8 |
| Drue Drinnon | 19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -10.4 |
| Bessanty Saragba | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.8 |
| Nate Deer | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -3.2 |
| Austin Green | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -0.8 |
* = starter