Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 75.6% | 24.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 86.2% | 13.8% | -10.1 | ✓ (2.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 91.4% | 8.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 91.5% | 8.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -13 (69-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kon Knueppel | 39 | 7-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +4.8 |
| Sion James | 35 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 17 | +7.8 |
| Tyrese Proctor | 29 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 6 | -3.4 |
| Cooper Flagg | 29 | 6-15 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 16 | +12.0 |
| Khaman Maluach | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -7.0 |
| Maliq Brown | 16 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +16.4 |
| Mason Gillis | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Isaiah Evans | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +2.3 |
| Caleb Foster | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Patrick Ngongba | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.2 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Powell | 35 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +12.3 |
| RJ Davis | 34 | 7-15 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +3.3 |
| V. Lubin | 29 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Seth Trimble | 26 | 1-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -13.9 |
| Jae'Lyn Withers | 26 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +3.3 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 20 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | -4.1 |
| Ian Jackson | 19 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | -6.7 |
| Jalen Washington | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -9.2 |
| Ty Claude | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
* = starter