Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.3% | 92.7% | +14.0 | ✓ (1.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.6% | 92.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.3% | 92.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +15 (81-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac McKneely | 36 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 5-5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 12 | +0.1 |
| Andrew Rohde | 34 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | -1.3 |
| Blake Buchanan | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | -3.4 |
| Taine Murray | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -6.0 |
| Elijah Saunders | 22 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2.4 |
| D. Ames | 18 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +2.8 |
| Anthony Robinson | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | +1.6 |
| Jacob Cofie | 13 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | -1.5 |
| Ishan Sharma | 12 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -0.1 |
| TJ Power | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.3 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis | 33 | 3-14 | 0-4 | 6-7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Drake Powell | 32 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | +7.1 |
| Jae'Lyn Withers | 29 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 20 | +8.6 |
| V. Lubin | 28 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Seth Trimble | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | +5.2 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 22 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | +4.9 |
| Ian Jackson | 17 | 5-7 | 3-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +2.0 |
| Jalen Washington | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Cade Tyson | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3.5 |
* = starter