Model Predictions
| Model | California Golden Bears | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.1% | 82.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.3% | 88.7% | +11.3 | ✓ (0.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.6% | 87.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.6% | 87.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +11 (76-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
California Golden Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rytis Petraitis | 35 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 | -15.7 |
| DJ Campbell | 33 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -1 | -13.7 |
| Lee Dort | 32 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -0.6 |
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | 32 | 5-17 | 2-8 | 4-6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | -11.8 |
| Jovan Blacksher Jr. | 30 | 5-15 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 3 | -13.8 |
| Christian Tucker | 18 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Joshua Ola-Joseph | 14 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -7.1 |
| Spencer Mahoney | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -5.7 |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Harris | 36 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 16 | +16.5 |
| Matt Cross | 34 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 19 | +12.9 |
| B.J. Edwards | 34 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | +14.8 |
| Boopie Miller | 31 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | +9.0 |
| Kario Oquendo | 20 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Keon Ambrose-Hylton | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +10.6 |
| Jerrell Colbert | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2.7 |
| Yohan Traore | 13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Tibet Gorener | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
* = starter