Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 84.5% | 15.5% | -9.3 | ✓ (1.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.4% | 10.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 89.6% | 10.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals -11 (65-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Proctor | 36 | 6-13 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +7.4 |
| Kon Knueppel | 30 | 4-12 | 2-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +14.4 |
| Maliq Brown | 29 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | +9.7 |
| Cooper Flagg | 28 | 8-17 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 18 | +0.1 |
| Sion James | 25 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | -9.1 |
| Mason Gillis | 17 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +7.3 |
| Caleb Foster | 13 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | -6.1 |
| Khaman Maluach | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7.1 |
| Isaiah Evans | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +11.4 |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chucky Hepburn | 37 | 2-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | +2.2 |
| Reyne Smith | 33 | 4-11 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | -3.1 |
| J'Vonne Hadley | 33 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -2.3 |
| Terrence Edwards Jr. | 31 | 6-12 | 3-4 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +5.2 |
| James Scott | 26 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| Noah Waterman | 22 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | -2.6 |
| Khani Rooths | 18 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | +1.2 |
* = starter