Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.1% | 14.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.0% | 24.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 83.0% | 17.0% | -8.7 | ✓ (6.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 87.5% | 12.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 87.7% | 12.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 67.7% | 32.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -2 (61-63). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis | 36 | 5-13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -1 | -4.5 |
| Drake Powell | 34 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Ian Jackson | 32 | 8-15 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | -6.3 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 29 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2.4 |
| Jalen Washington | 27 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 19 | -9.7 |
| Seth Trimble | 25 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -0.4 |
| V. Lubin | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Jae'Lyn Withers | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.6 |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael O'Connell | 35 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +9.2 |
| Marcus Hill | 33 | 10-19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 12 | +6.1 |
| Ben Middlebrooks | 32 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | +6.5 |
| J. Taylor | 30 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | -0.7 |
| D. Styles | 23 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +9.0 |
| Dennis Parker Jr. | 18 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Breon Pass | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -7.8 |
| Ismael Diouf | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Bryce Heard | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8.5 |
* = starter