Model Predictions
| Model | Saint Louis Billikens | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 21.6% | 78.4% | +7.1 | ✓ (0.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +8 (75-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Saint Louis Billikens
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibson Jimerson | 40 | 8-18 | 7-15 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 17 | -5.5 |
| Robbie Avila | 37 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | -5.8 |
| Isaiah Swope | 35 | 11-17 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 17 | -7.2 |
| Kobe Johnson | 35 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | +4.4 |
| Kalu Anya | 27 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +1.7 |
| Amari McCottry | 16 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -3 | -15.3 |
| Dylan Warlick | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Kilian Brockhoff | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +0.1 |
| Max Pikaar | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enoch Cheeks | 38 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +3.5 |
| Nate Santos | 36 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +2.9 |
| Javon Bennett | 33 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +8.3 |
| Malachi Smith | 22 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +3.0 |
| Amael L'Etang | 20 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 | -2.9 |
| Zed Key | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | +9.3 |
| Posh Alexander | 13 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +5.2 |
| Jacob Conner | 12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Jaiun Simon | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +6.8 |
* = starter