Model Predictions
| Model | VCU Rams | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.2% | 30.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.0% | 34.0% | -3.7 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers -5 (68-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
VCU Rams
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Shulga | 37 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | -2.5 |
| Zeb Jackson | 30 | 2-11 | 0-4 | 13-14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 10 | +2.1 |
| Jack Clark | 26 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -5.9 |
| J. Bamisile | 25 | 3-12 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Christian Fermin | 24 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Phillip Russell | 24 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | -2.0 |
| Michael Belle | 14 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Luke Bamgboye | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -4.8 |
| Brandon Jennings | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Terrence Hill Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Santos | 37 | 5-12 | 2-3 | 6-7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5.2 |
| Javon Bennett | 36 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 6-6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 8 | +4.0 |
| Enoch Cheeks | 33 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | +2.1 |
| Posh Alexander | 25 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | +3.5 |
| Zed Key | 23 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | +1.3 |
| Malachi Smith | 17 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +0.8 |
| Amael L'Etang | 17 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +3.2 |
| Jacob Conner | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3.5 |
| Jaiun Simon | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter