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2024-12-07

Model Predictions

Model Pacific Tigers Illinois State Redbirds Spread Result
Elo 5.1% 94.9% -
Bradley-Terry 10.7% 89.3% -
Margin 9.1% 90.9% +12.7 (1.7 off)
Pythagorean 21.1% 78.9% -
Efficiency 17.0% 83.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 10.0% 90.0% -
Log Adjusted 10.1% 89.9% -
Points Off/Def 24.6% 75.4% -

Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +11 (72-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Pacific Tigers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
L. Washington 36 4-11 3-5 3-3 7 2 0 0 3 14 9 -9.7
J. Koulibaly 35 2-2 1-1 0-0 1 2 0 0 3 5 3 -2.0
P. Krivokapic 33 2-9 1-7 0-0 4 1 0 0 1 5 0 -15.7
E. Ralph 27 3-13 2-7 2-2 10 1 0 1 1 10 8 -9.7
E. Fisher 26 5-12 0-2 2-2 4 1 0 1 3 12 3 -0.1
J. Gardner 26 6-9 1-2 2-2 4 0 1 0 0 15 11 -0.2
S. Jones 9 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 -3.1
B. Smith 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -7.8
K. Keinys 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Illinois State Redbirds

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Kinziger 38 4-12 2-7 4-5 6 4 1 0 0 14 13 +9.7
D. Banks 33 1-3 0-0 1-2 6 4 1 0 3 3 8 +16.3
L. Wolf 23 2-2 1-1 0-0 1 0 2 0 0 5 6 -1.5
C. Walker 22 7-13 0-1 8-8 11 3 0 0 1 22 22 +4.7
J. Daugherty 21 5-7 5-7 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 15 9 +9.1
C. Boser 17 3-6 2-4 1-2 3 1 1 0 0 9 8 +2.8
Ty Pence 15 0-2 0-2 2-2 0 0 0 0 1 2 -1 -1.5
C. Norris 14 1-1 0-0 0-0 3 1 0 0 0 2 5 +7.5
M. Poindexter 13 0-5 0-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -7 +4.7
J. Davis 4 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2.0

* = starter