Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | North Dakota State Bison | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.2% | 40.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 38.9% | 61.1% | +2.5 | ✗ (11.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Dakota State Bison -9 (68-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger * | 35 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 15 | +7.2 |
| Ty Pence * | 33 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +8.8 |
| Dalton Banks * | 26 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | +3.4 |
| Chase Walker * | 19 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +7.0 |
| Landon Wolf * | 17 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6.1 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 26 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +7.9 |
| Jordan Davis | 19 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | +13.5 |
| Caden Boser | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3.8 |
| Cameron Barnes | 6 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Jack Daugherty | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +7.0 |
North Dakota State Bison
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masen Miller * | 33 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -13.8 |
| Brennan Watkins * | 33 | 2-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -8.2 |
| Jacksen Moni * | 28 | 4-12 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 5 | -1.7 |
| Jacari White * | 24 | 10-15 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 15 | - |
| Noah Feddersen * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +3.1 |
| Tajavis Miller | 28 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | -8.2 |
| Jeremiah Burke | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1.9 |
| Luke Kasubke | 10 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Andy Stefonowicz | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -8.0 |
| Darik Dissette | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.0 |
* = starter