Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Missouri State Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 87.3% | 12.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.9% | 22.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.2% | 35.8% | -3.2 | ✓ (1.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.3% | 24.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.3% | 24.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Missouri State Bears -2 (68-70). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger | 35 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | +8.5 |
| Dalton Banks | 34 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 18 | +9.1 |
| Jordan Davis | 31 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | +12.1 |
| Landon Wolf | 19 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +6.9 |
| Chase Walker | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | +14.3 |
| Ty Pence | 17 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -10.1 |
| Jack Daugherty | 14 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -8.1 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 11 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | -16.1 |
| Caden Boser | 10 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -7.7 |
| Cameron Barnes | 10 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4.3 |
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaxton King | 35 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | -3.7 |
| Michael Osei-Bonsu | 35 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | +2.3 |
| Vincent Brady II | 34 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | -2.6 |
| Dez White | 32 | 5-14 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | -5.6 |
| Chase Martin | 27 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 14 | +16.0 |
| Jalen Hampton | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +6.2 |
| Wesley Oba | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12.2 |
| Logan Epes | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.9 |
| Makhai Valentine | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +0.2 |
* = starter