Model Predictions
| Model | Drake Bulldogs | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.5% | 31.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 68.4% | 31.6% | -4.2 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.8% | 17.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.9% | 17.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds -7 (77-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Drake Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz | 40 | 9-16 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +3.5 |
| Mitch Mascari | 40 | 6-11 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +2.7 |
| Daniel Abreu | 35 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | +0.9 |
| Kael Combs | 27 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +1.9 |
| Cam Manyawu | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | +1.0 |
| Isaia Howard | 14 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3.8 |
| Tavion Banks | 11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -3.9 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -3.3 |
| Nate Ferguson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Walker | 33 | 10-15 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 17 | -4.1 |
| Johnny Kinziger | 27 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 10-12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 17 | +3.8 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 25 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +3.1 |
| Jordan Davis | 24 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5.7 |
| Dalton Banks | 24 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | -9.6 |
| Ty Pence | 23 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | +5.7 |
| Jack Daugherty | 23 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +5.3 |
| Landon Wolf | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3.7 |
| Caden Boser | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3.6 |
| Cade Norris | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter