Model Predictions
| Model | Murray State Racers | Valparaiso Beacons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.4% | 46.6% | -0.8 | ✓ (17.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.2% | 33.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Valparaiso Beacons -18 (56-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaCobi Wood | 40 | 5-13 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 8 | +15.1 |
| Kylen Milton | 34 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 | +23.9 |
| AJ Ferguson | 32 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14 | +15.0 |
| Nick Ellington | 28 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 20 | +22.4 |
| Terence Harcum | 27 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +9.8 |
| Justin Morgan | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +2.9 |
| Alden Applewhite | 13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3.7 |
| K. Lindsay-Martin | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwieger | 35 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro | 34 | 8-13 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 13 | -9.9 |
| All Wright | 34 | 3-16 | 0-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -3 | -19.3 |
| Darius DeAveiro | 26 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -8.8 |
| Tyler Schmidt | 24 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -7 | -3.6 |
| Kaspar Sepp | 20 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -12.6 |
| C. Schwieger | 19 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Justus McNair | 6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | -5.4 |
| Isaiah Shaw | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Devon Ellis | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.9 |
* = starter