Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.0% | 80.0% | +7.6 | ✓ (0.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +8 (86-78). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwieger | 38 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 5 | - |
| All Wright | 30 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | -8.3 |
| Darius DeAveiro | 29 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | -0.5 |
| Kaspar Sepp | 20 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | -6.8 |
| Tyler Schmidt | 20 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | -6.3 |
| C. Schwieger | 20 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Isaiah Shaw | 20 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | +12.1 |
| Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.0 |
| Justus McNair | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +2.0 |
| Devon Ellis | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +3.9 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger | 38 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 16 | +4.8 |
| Dalton Banks | 35 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 15 | +16.8 |
| Chase Walker | 31 | 9-11 | 1-1 | 5-8 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 25 | +20.7 |
| Jordan Davis | 25 | 2-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | +6.2 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 23 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +2.9 |
| Ty Pence | 19 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | -1.8 |
| Landon Wolf | 16 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Jack Daugherty | 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -7.0 |
| Caden Boser | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | -9.9 |
| Cameron Barnes | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -7.0 |
* = starter