Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana State Sycamores | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.8% | 86.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.6% | 80.4% | +7.8 | ✓ (3.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.7% | 75.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +4 (85-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Indiana State Sycamores
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samage Teel | 37 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -1 | -7.4 |
| Aaron Gray | 29 | 7-10 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 15 | -4.9 |
| Josiah LeGree | 29 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Markus Harding | 25 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 3-5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -0.6 |
| Camp Wagner | 24 | 6-10 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | -0.9 |
| Bruno Alocen | 23 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | -7.0 |
| Jaden Daughtry | 14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | -6.8 |
| Kmani Doughty | 11 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Jayan Walker | 8 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.0 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Davis | 36 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | +8.1 |
| Dalton Banks | 33 | 6-7 | 2-2 | 7-8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 20 | +10.6 |
| Johnny Kinziger | 31 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +14.3 |
| Chase Walker | 28 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 25 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -7.5 |
| Landon Wolf | 18 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +4.3 |
| Ty Pence | 17 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +3.5 |
| Caden Boser | 11 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +5.2 |
| Jack Daugherty | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -3.9 |
* = starter