Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.8% | 93.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 13.8% | 86.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.0% | 83.0% | +8.7 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 32.2% | 67.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +6 (74-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Brady II | 34 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 7-8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 12 | -6.2 |
| Dez White | 31 | 8-12 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 11 | -2.4 |
| Zaxton King | 30 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +4.6 |
| Jalen Hampton | 22 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | +1.4 |
| Michael Osei-Bonsu | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | -5.4 |
| Wesley Oba | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | -1.5 |
| Logan Epes | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.5 |
| Chase Martin | 15 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -10.6 |
| Mozae Downing-Rivers | 13 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1.8 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Banks | 36 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 17 | +10.0 |
| Landon Wolf | 34 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 6-7 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 23 | +7.5 |
| Chase Walker | 33 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | +5.2 |
| Johnny Kinziger | 29 | 7-12 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +10.2 |
| Ty Pence | 27 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | +7.1 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 18 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -9.0 |
| Caden Boser | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | -3.2 |
| Cade Norris | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.9 |
* = starter