Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Drake Bulldogs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.5% | 85.5% | +9.8 | ✓ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.2% | 88.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.1% | 88.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Drake Bulldogs +4 (66-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger | 37 | 5-11 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +4.6 |
| Landon Wolf | 36 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +5.0 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 32 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +1.4 |
| Dalton Banks | 29 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | +1.2 |
| Chase Walker | 27 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 14 | +11.0 |
| Ty Pence | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3.0 |
| Cade Norris | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +4.5 |
| Caden Boser | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -6.6 |
Drake Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz | 40 | 7-15 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 15 | -4.7 |
| Mitch Mascari | 40 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | -2.8 |
| Daniel Abreu | 37 | 7-9 | 4-5 | 5-5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 20 | -2.5 |
| Kael Combs | 26 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1.9 |
| Cam Manyawu | 25 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | +4.4 |
| Isaiah Jackson | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2.4 |
| Nate Ferguson | 11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | -9.9 |
| Tavion Banks | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -0.3 |
| Isaia Howard | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.1 |
* = starter