Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | Murray State Racers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.2% | 75.8% | +6.3 | ✓ (4.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Murray State Racers +11 (58-47). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwieger | 36 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -8.2 |
| Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro | 33 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -3 | -11.5 |
| Tyler Schmidt | 27 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | -6.6 |
| Kaspar Sepp | 27 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -12.2 |
| Darius DeAveiro | 25 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | -10.4 |
| All Wright | 22 | 1-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | -3.1 |
| Justus McNair | 16 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | +2.0 |
| Isaiah Shaw | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +7.3 |
| Devon Ellis | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +0.1 |
| C. Schwieger | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8.2 |
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaCobi Wood | 36 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | +9.0 |
| AJ Ferguson | 33 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +10.6 |
| Nick Ellington | 28 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | +16.0 |
| Terence Harcum | 27 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +12.1 |
| Kylen Milton | 25 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | +9.6 |
| Alden Applewhite | 24 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +2.4 |
| Justin Morgan | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -7.5 |
| K. Lindsay-Martin | 12 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -1 | - |
* = starter