Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Murray State Racers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.4% | 28.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.6% | 56.4% | +1.4 | ✗ (7.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Murray State Racers -6 (68-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Poindexter | 32 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | -2.9 |
| Johnny Kinziger | 30 | 6-11 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +10.2 |
| Caden Boser | 27 | 7-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +12.4 |
| Dalton Banks | 26 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | +12.5 |
| Jordan Davis | 25 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -3.5 |
| Ty Pence | 24 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | +9.6 |
| Landon Wolf | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +11.9 |
| Cade Norris | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Cameron Barnes | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.7 |
| Jack Daugherty | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5.3 |
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Ferguson | 36 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 5-8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | -7.8 |
| Terence Harcum | 35 | 1-10 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | -7.0 |
| JaCobi Wood | 33 | 7-14 | 3-7 | 4-5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 11 | -6.2 |
| Kylen Milton | 30 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 9-10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 20 | -8.3 |
| Justin Morgan | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Alden Applewhite | 22 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | +0.0 |
| Nick Ellington | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -14.5 |
| K. Lindsay-Martin | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Patrick Chew | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.2 |
* = starter