Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Belmont Bruins | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | +2.3 | ✓ (0.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Belmont Bruins +2 (99-97). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Pence * | 40 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -2.5 |
| Dalton Banks * | 37 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 11 | +9.8 |
| Johnny Kinziger * | 36 | 5-12 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 13 | -3.6 |
| Landon Wolf * | 30 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | +3.9 |
| Chase Walker * | 22 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +5.4 |
| Caden Boser | 21 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 12 | -5.9 |
| Malachi Poindexter | 18 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -2.6 |
| Jordan Davis | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5.3 |
| Jack Daugherty | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2.1 |
Belmont Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Walker * | 37 | 10-12 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 19 | +0.1 |
| Jonathan Pierre * | 32 | 6-17 | 2-8 | 5-6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 19 | +8.7 |
| Carter Whitt * | 31 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | +13.5 |
| Tyler Lundblade * | 30 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 13 | -2.1 |
| Brigham Rogers * | 21 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Sam Orme | 27 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +18.6 |
| Brody Peebles | 17 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | -12.2 |
| Aidan Noyes | 15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5.3 |
| Drew Scharnowski | 11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -11.1 |
| Win Miller | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -6.9 |
* = starter