Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.5% | 92.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.9% | 95.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.5% | 97.5% | +20.2 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 13.4% | 86.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +23 (83-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Weaver | 35 | 6-16 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | -26.0 |
| Alex Crawford | 34 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 3 | -24.5 |
| Elijah Price | 29 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -23.4 |
| Zaon Collins | 29 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -25.4 |
| Brian Amuneke | 28 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | -8.5 |
| Mor Seck | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -10.3 |
| Jasir Tremble | 15 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5.3 |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Joshua Bonga | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.8 |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyd | 28 | 8-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 15 | +27.4 |
| Wayne Mckinney Iii | 27 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +23.4 |
| Miles Byrd | 24 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | +24.4 |
| Magoon Gwath | 23 | 6-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 14 | +26.4 |
| J. Coleman-Jones | 21 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +10.3 |
| Taj Degourville | 21 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +8.4 |
| Miles Heide | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +11.3 |
| Kimo Ferrari | 14 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +0.2 |
| Pharaoh Compton | 12 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2.3 |
| Demarshay Johnson Jr. | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.9 |
| D. Lopez | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 |
| Ryan Schwarz | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 |
| Cam Lawin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3.9 |
| BJ Davis | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter