Model Predictions
| Model | California Baptist Lancers | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 6.2% | 93.8% | +15.0 | ✓ (9.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.6% | 97.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.4% | 97.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +6 (81-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
California Baptist Lancers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique Daniels Jr. | 35 | 8-21 | 3-11 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 8 | -4.0 |
| Javonté Johnson | 29 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -4.0 |
| Kendal Coleman | 27 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | -7.4 |
| Adam Moussa | 25 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -1.3 |
| Bradey Henige | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +13.6 |
| Sam Silverstein | 19 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -11.8 |
| AJ Braun | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -5.4 |
| Tylen Riley | 10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -8.4 |
| Brantly Stevenson | 10 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +11.6 |
| Mouhamadou Dioum | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Jonathan Griman | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyd | 32 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 4-7 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 16 | +6.0 |
| Miles Byrd | 31 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +4.0 |
| Magoon Gwath | 26 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | -4.8 |
| J. Coleman-Jones | 23 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | +8.1 |
| BJ Davis | 21 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -0.8 |
| Taj Degourville | 18 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | -6.6 |
| Wayne Mckinney Iii | 18 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +6.1 |
| Miles Heide | 17 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | -0.0 |
| Pharaoh Compton | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +5.9 |
| Demarshay Johnson Jr. | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +4.8 |
* = starter