Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | Fresno State Bulldogs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 86.1% | 13.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 91.6% | 8.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 93.6% | 6.4% | -14.7 | ✓ (7.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 76.3% | 23.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.6% | 5.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.6% | 5.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 79.0% | 21.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Fresno State Bulldogs -22 (62-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Boyd * | 32 | 1-10 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +21.1 |
| M. Gwath * | 28 | 10-13 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 24 | +12.3 |
| M. Byrd * | 27 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | +13.8 |
| BJ Davis * | 26 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +8.3 |
| J. Coleman-Jones * | 24 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +13.2 |
| T. DeGourville | 22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +12.5 |
| W. McKinney III | 17 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +12.7 |
| P. Compton | 10 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +18.7 |
| M. Heide | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3.1 |
| K. Ferrari | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| D. Johnson Jr. | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3.1 |
| R. Schwarz | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Robinson * | 37 | 6-20 | 2-9 | 6-9 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | -20.3 |
| Z. Collins * | 32 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | -20.3 |
| E. Price * | 26 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 4-8 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -8.4 |
| A. Augillard * | 17 | 1-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | -5.5 |
| M. Seck * | 12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4.9 |
| A. Crawford | 31 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -17.2 |
| B. Amuneke | 24 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -12.7 |
| J. Tremble | 18 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -14.6 |
| J. Bonga | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -0.9 |
* = starter