Model Predictions
| Model | UC San Diego Tritons | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 79.0% | 21.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.5% | 56.5% | +1.4 | ✓ (3.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +5 (63-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC San Diego Tritons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Vicentic | 20 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -4.8 |
| Hayden Gray * | 36 | 1-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10.2 |
| Tyler McGhie * | 34 | 8-15 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 11 | -11.7 |
| Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones * | 32 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 8 | -8.5 |
| Chris Howell * | 32 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | -6.1 |
| Nordin Kapic * | 29 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -4.1 |
| Justin Rochelin | 8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3.4 |
| Aidan Burke | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -5.3 |
| Maximo Milovich | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyd * | 33 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 3 | +12.8 |
| Miles Byrd * | 31 | 7-12 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 27 | +16.2 |
| BJ Davis * | 25 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | +18.5 |
| Magoon Gwath * | 23 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +14.3 |
| J. Coleman-Jones * | 23 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -4.2 |
| Wayne Mckinney Iii | 26 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +12.8 |
| Pharaoh Compton | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4.9 |
| Taj Degourville | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1.1 |
| Miles Heide | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Kimo Ferrari | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.3 |
* = starter