Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 82.9% | 17.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 95.0% | 5.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 95.9% | 4.1% | -17.3 | ✓ (16.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 82.4% | 17.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.9% | 4.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.9% | 4.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons -1 (76-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Coleman-Jones | 33 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 2-5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | -13.4 |
| Magoon Gwath | 32 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 | -6.6 |
| BJ Davis | 30 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -4.7 |
| Taj Degourville | 26 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | -6.1 |
| Miles Byrd | 25 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -6.3 |
| Wayne Mckinney Iii | 25 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 5-7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 10 | -2.9 |
| Nick Boyd | 23 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1 | -6.5 |
| Kimo Ferrari | 11 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8.2 |
| Miles Heide | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -2.0 |
| Pharaoh Compton | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2.6 |
| Demarshay Johnson Jr. | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.2 |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Taylor | 43 | 4-10 | 4-8 | 9-11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 19 | +16.0 |
| Luke Kearney | 42 | 3-9 | 3-8 | 5-7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +6.0 |
| Kyle Marshall | 39 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | +11.1 |
| Wesley Celichowski | 34 | 8-8 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 15 | +10.8 |
| Jeffrey Mills | 26 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +4.2 |
| Yoda Oke | 19 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | +9.2 |
| Caleb Walker | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +0.6 |
| Byron Brown | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -3.6 |
* = starter