Model Predictions
| Model | American University Eagles | Lafayette Leopards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 65.7% | 34.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.7% | 52.3% | +0.5 | ✗ (7.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Lafayette Leopards -7 (68-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
American University Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Stephens | 34 | 1-11 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Greg Jones | 32 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +2.7 |
| Matt Mayock | 27 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -1.3 |
| Matt Rogers | 26 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 19 | +14.0 |
| Colin Smalls | 24 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +10.9 |
| Lincoln Ball | 23 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | +10.0 |
| Eric Michaels | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10.4 |
| Wyatt Nausadis | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.7 |
| Julen Iturbe | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -7.2 |
| Adrian Samuels | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -0.1 |
| Mason Whittaker | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.9 |
Lafayette Leopards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Butler | 37 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | +3.8 |
| Andrew Phillips | 32 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -0.1 |
| Justin Vander Baan | 32 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 14 | -1.6 |
| Alex Chaikin | 31 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | -0.8 |
| Caleb Williams | 24 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | -13.6 |
| Luka Savicevic | 21 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | +0.6 |
| Ryan Pettit | 15 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -3.7 |
| Misha Bednostin | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | -2.6 |
| Malik Rasul | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.9 |
* = starter