Model Predictions
| Model | American University Eagles | Navy Midshipmen | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.7% | 36.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.8% | 55.2% | +1.1 | ✓ (21.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Navy Midshipmen +23 (81-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
American University Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Stephens | 30 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | -25.8 |
| Matt Rogers | 30 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 10 | -23.4 |
| Colin Smalls | 29 | 5-12 | 4-8 | 4-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | -20.6 |
| Matt Mayock | 26 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -9.5 |
| Greg Jones | 22 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | -16.8 |
| Lincoln Ball | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -11.7 |
| Geoff Sprouse | 17 | 1-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | -6.6 |
| Wyatt Nausadis | 13 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Mason Whittaker | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3.0 |
| Julen Iturbe | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.1 |
| Adam Holod | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Noah Jones | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Navy Midshipmen
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Draper | 35 | 6-7 | 2-2 | 3-3 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 32 | +22.8 |
| Jinwoo Kim | 33 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | +21.8 |
| Austin Benigni | 32 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +23.0 |
| Aidan Kehoe | 29 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 23 | +15.3 |
| Jordan Pennick | 29 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +19.5 |
| Mitch Fischer | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +7.5 |
| Lysander Rehnstrom | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.6 |
| Cam Cole | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +6.4 |
| Carnegie Johnson | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jack Medalie | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Julian Gabbidon | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2.0 |
| Nyles Howard | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| David Burnett | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Sam Krist | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Owen Gray | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter