Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo Rockets | Youngstown State Penguins | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.7% | 70.3% | +4.7 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.8% | 64.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.5% | 61.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Youngstown State Penguins +6 (93-87). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson | 34 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 5-11 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | -0.9 |
| Javan Simmons | 32 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | -6.7 |
| Sam Lewis | 30 | 7-14 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 15 | -5.7 |
| Seth Hubbard | 28 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 13 | -3.6 |
| Isaiah Adams | 25 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 2 | -2.9 |
| Andre Lorentsson | 23 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +3.6 |
| Bryce Ford | 11 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +6.2 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +4.1 |
| Grgur Brcic | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1.6 |
Youngstown State Penguins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Galette | 35 | 5-13 | 3-8 | 4-6 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 22 | +1.9 |
| E.J. Farmer | 31 | 8-15 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 4 | +3.7 |
| Juwan Maxey | 29 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | +15.1 |
| Jason Nelson | 29 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | -2.0 |
| Gabe Dynes | 27 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 21 | -9.1 |
| Siem Uijtendaal | 17 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3.2 |
| Cris Carroll | 14 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +5.7 |
| Ty Harper | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Christian Kirkland | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter