Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.3% | 86.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.3% | 86.7% | +10.3 | ✓ (13.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.7% | 87.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +24 (77-53). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Holt | 33 | 8-17 | 0-5 | 2-3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | -31.3 |
| Julian Vaughns | 32 | 6-15 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 | -18.0 |
| Bailey Nunn | 31 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -20.0 |
| Chudi Dioramma | 24 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -20.9 |
| Michael Wilson | 23 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -20.1 |
| Lachlan Brewer | 19 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2.4 |
| EJ Neal | 17 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +2.7 |
| K. Chol Deng | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7.5 |
| Leo Ricketts | 9 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | +7.5 |
| Deonte Williams | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.8 |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent McLaughlin | 33 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 5-9 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 14 | +17.7 |
| Carson Towt | 29 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 19 | +14.6 |
| Diego Campisano | 24 | 7-9 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15 | +19.1 |
| Monty Bowser | 24 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +8.3 |
| Jayden Jackson | 23 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +14.4 |
| Oakland Fort | 21 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +18.1 |
| Leigh Rickwood-Pitt | 15 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2.7 |
| Dillan Baker | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +5.2 |
| Ali Ragab | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10.3 |
| Jack Wistrcill | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Ryan Abelman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
| C.J. Ford | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -3.0 |
* = starter