Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Sacramento State Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 79.4% | 20.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 69.9% | 30.1% | -4.6 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.3% | 36.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 80.9% | 19.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 80.9% | 19.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento State Hornets -7 (62-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Tamba | 37 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 8-11 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 18 | +3.5 |
| Leo DeBruhl | 32 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +5.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 31 | 6-16 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | -2 | -4.5 |
| Niko Rocak | 30 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | -0.7 |
| Connor Sevilla | 22 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +3.9 |
| Sione Lose | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -2.4 |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 14 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +7.2 |
| Nils Cooper | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +8.5 |
| Isaiah Chappell | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Skytta | 39 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -4.1 |
| Bailey Nunn | 34 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | -4.1 |
| Jacob Holt | 30 | 7-17 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 4 | -6.1 |
| Lachlan Brewer | 26 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Julian Vaughns | 25 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +6.6 |
| Michael Wilson | 20 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6.4 |
| EJ Neal | 12 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | -11.4 |
| Bowyn Beatty | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Chudi Dioramma | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter