Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 21.5% | 78.5% | +7.1 | ✗ (9.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons -2 (61-63). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Neal * | 35 | 4-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Lachlan Brewer * | 27 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +7.8 |
| Emil Skytta * | 25 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +4.3 |
| Jacob Holt * | 23 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | +5.0 |
| Julian Vaughns * | 16 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | -1.6 |
| Bailey Nunn | 34 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | +0.1 |
| Deonte Williams | 20 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Chudi Dioramma | 12 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2.3 |
| Bowyn Beatty | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8.2 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Taylor * | 40 | 2-12 | 1-9 | 6-9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 | -2.8 |
| Jeffrey Mills * | 37 | 7-13 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 10 | -0.7 |
| Byron Brown * | 33 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -0.5 |
| Wesley Celichowski * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -11.0 |
| Sam Duskin * | 21 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -4.3 |
| Luke Kearney | 17 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +5.6 |
| Caleb Walker | 15 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | +9.0 |
| Kyle Marshall | 12 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +0.3 |
* = starter