Model Predictions
| Model | American University Eagles | Siena Saints | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.1% | 30.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.1% | 64.9% | +3.4 | ✓ (4.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Siena Saints +8 (74-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
American University Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Smalls * | 34 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | -11.7 |
| Matt Rogers * | 32 | 11-22 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 6 | -6.3 |
| Matt Mayock * | 29 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -7.3 |
| Geoff Sprouse * | 29 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Greg Jones * | 26 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -18.0 |
| Elijah Stephens | 18 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | -7.2 |
| Lincoln Ball | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9.8 |
| Eric Michaels | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2.9 |
| Wyatt Nausadis | 8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +3.0 |
Siena Saints
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major Freeman * | 37 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 8 | -0.4 |
| Marcus Jackson * | 30 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | +5.3 |
| Peter Carey * | 29 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 18 | +21.9 |
| Brendan Coyle * | 27 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 14 | +9.3 |
| Reid Ducharme * | 13 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +5.2 |
| Justice Shoats | 33 | 4-12 | 1-1 | 9-13 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 18 | +8.6 |
| Tajae Jones | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +1.3 |
| Myles Wilmoth | 11 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9.9 |
| Gavin Doty | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.2 |
* = starter