Model Predictions
| Model | Pacific Tigers | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.8% | 73.2% | +3.6 | ✓ (16.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.6% | 51.4% | +0.3 | ✓ (19.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.4% | 41.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +20 (64-44). Ratings: 2024-25 season-end ratings.
Pacific Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Radocaj * | 34 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 | -18.7 |
| Sydney Ward * | 33 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7.8 |
| Liz Smith * | 29 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | -11.3 |
| Anaya James * | 29 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 9 | -8.8 |
| Luisa Anderegg * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | +6.0 |
| Nyah Lowery | 24 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -3 | -18.9 |
| Daria Nestorov | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -8.2 |
| Jamie Kent | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1.1 |
| Lauren Glazier | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -15.0 |
| Tyla Fautua | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.8 |
| Stella Szabo | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -2.4 |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail Shoff * | 31 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | +13.2 |
| Zeryhia Aokuso * | 28 | 5-15 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 7 | +9.3 |
| Kennedy Johnson * | 22 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | +1.4 |
| Maia Jones * | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Melesungu Afeaki * | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4.1 |
| Emily Foy | 29 | 7-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +17.9 |
| Jada Hunter | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +15.3 |
| Amy Kurkowski | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9.6 |
| Mauriana Hashemian-Orr | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +13.5 |
| Edie Clarke | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +8.5 |
| Nadia Bernard | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1.0 |
| Sasha Murphy | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +4.8 |
| Mali Ennis | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.7 |
* = starter