Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | California Golden Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.8% | 32.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.6% | 82.4% | +8.5 | ✓ (9.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: California Golden Bears +18 (91-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarred Hyder * | 31 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | -17.4 |
| Owen Koonce * | 28 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | -15.1 |
| Isaac Jessup * | 24 | 6-10 | 5-9 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 12 | +1.1 |
| Mac Riniker * | 22 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -19.5 |
| Ethan Menzies * | 14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Kieran Elliott | 20 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -15.0 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 14 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Peter Bandelj | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | -8.8 |
| Luka Tarlac | 12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -12.9 |
| Logan McLaughlin | 9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Paul Bizimana | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -5 | -1.9 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2.0 |
California Golden Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.J. Omot | 20 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | -5.8 |
| Jovan Blacksher Jr. * | 32 | 6-13 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | +16.9 |
| Andrej Stojakovic * | 30 | 5-17 | 2-9 | 3-5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 7 | +31.2 |
| DJ Campbell * | 24 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Mady Sissoko * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | +12.2 |
| Rytis Petraitis | 20 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 6-8 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 17 | +25.1 |
| Lee Dort | 18 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | +16.3 |
| Christian Tucker | 17 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Joshua Ola-Joseph | 10 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -9.1 |
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -0.1 |
* = starter