Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State Cardinals | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.2% | 85.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 4.5% | 95.5% | +16.8 | ✓ (8.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.3% | 98.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.3% | 98.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.4% | 83.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +8 (77-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Hill * | 36 | 7-16 | 0-2 | 11-13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 17 | - |
| Mickey Pearson Jr. * | 32 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +0.3 |
| Ethan Brittain-Watts * | 29 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +3.8 |
| Payton Sparks * | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -1 | -6.1 |
| Mason Jones * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -8.1 |
| Ben Hendriks | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | +10.5 |
| Jeremiah Hernandez | 22 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +0.7 |
| TJ Burch | 11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | -3.7 |
| Joey Hart | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4.3 |
| Juanse Gorosito | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.8 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Santos * | 35 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 4-8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7.0 |
| Enoch Cheeks * | 32 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 23 | +5.4 |
| Malachi Smith * | 31 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 5-6 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 29 | +4.6 |
| Javon Bennett * | 22 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -11.3 |
| Zed Key * | 16 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | +8.7 |
| Posh Alexander | 22 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +8.0 |
| Jacob Conner | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | +10.5 |
| Isaac Jack | 14 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | +2.0 |
| Amael L'Etang | 10 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -3.8 |
| Hamad Mousa | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.6 |
* = starter