Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 10.8% | 89.2% | +11.6 | ✓ (9.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 14.2% | 85.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 13.7% | 86.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +2 (92-90). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett * | 34 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | +3.3 |
| Nate Santos * | 33 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 7 | +6.7 |
| Enoch Cheeks * | 31 | 4-11 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | +4.1 |
| Malachi Smith * | 22 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | -3.8 |
| Zed Key * | 20 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | -16.3 |
| Posh Alexander | 24 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3.5 |
| Amael L'Etang | 12 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +8.4 |
| Hamad Mousa | 10 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | +10.9 |
| Jaiun Simon | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2.3 |
| Isaac Jack | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +7.5 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis * | 36 | 8-19 | 4-10 | 10-11 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 20 | -0.7 |
| Seth Trimble * | 33 | 10-14 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 24 | +7.4 |
| Elliot Cadeau * | 32 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | +1.5 |
| Jalen Washington * | 24 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | -5.8 |
| Jae'Lyn Withers * | 19 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6.8 |
| Drake Powell | 23 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | +8.2 |
| Ian Jackson | 19 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -4.9 |
| V. Lubin | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Cade Tyson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3.1 |
| James Brown | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Ty Claude | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0 |
* = starter