Model Predictions
| Model | Northwestern Wildcats | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.6% | 74.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.1% | 35.9% | -3.2 | ✗ (8.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.7% | 27.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.4% | 26.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.1% | 44.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +5 (71-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli * | 39 | 12-16 | 3-3 | 5-6 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 25 | -3.2 |
| K.J. Windham * | 28 | 4-11 | 0-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Jalen Leach * | 23 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -2.6 |
| Ty Berry * | 21 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4 | -14.4 |
| Matthew Nicholson * | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -4.7 |
| Justin Mullins | 23 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | +9.5 |
| Angelo Ciaravino | 21 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | -1.8 |
| Luke Hunger | 19 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +5.7 |
| Blake Smith | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.3 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enoch Cheeks * | 34 | 7-10 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | +7.9 |
| Malachi Smith * | 31 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 5-10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1.5 |
| Zed Key * | 30 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +8.5 |
| Javon Bennett * | 27 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +5.8 |
| Nate Santos * | 26 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | +15.1 |
| Posh Alexander | 20 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.7 |
| Jacob Conner | 19 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +7.8 |
| Amael L'Etang | 10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -11.1 |
| Hamad Mousa | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.0 |
* = starter