Model Predictions
| Model | James Madison Dukes | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | +0.7 | ✓ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +9 (102-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
James Madison Dukes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Brown | 48 | 1-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -11.0 |
| Mark Freeman | 41 | 6-19 | 4-12 | 3-6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 2 | -12.9 |
| Bryce Lindsay | 36 | 7-17 | 3-12 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5 | -9.4 |
| Eddie Ricks III | 35 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | -15.1 |
| Elijah Hutchins-Everett | 35 | 8-13 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 23 | +2.5 |
| AJ Smith | 32 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | -1.0 |
| Justin Taylor | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -16.2 |
| Noah Williams | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Will Lovings-Watts | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua O'Garro | 46 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14 | +13.0 |
| Tyrel Morgan | 42 | 8-9 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 18 | +17.4 |
| Mark Drone | 37 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 10 | +11.0 |
| Tylan Pope | 37 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 9-12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 23 | +9.4 |
| Coleton Benson | 35 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 16 | +12.9 |
| Christian Turner | 16 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Drue Drinnon | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +3.2 |
| Nate Deer | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +6.2 |
| Kaden Gumbs | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Austin Green | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +0.4 |
* = starter